LCBO SOD · Live
Updated May 5, 2026 · 06:42 AM
MC
Brand Command Centre
Northfield Spirits · LCBO Ontario Network · Week 18, 2026
4 Weeks
13 Weeks
YTD
▼ All SKUs
⬇ Export
📈 Total Depletions
14,382
↑ +8.4% WoW
⏱ Avg Portfolio DOH
24.6
↓ −3.2 days
% Sell-Through
68.3%
↑ +2.1pp WoW
🏆 Market Share
13.7%
↓ −1.5pp vs PY
⚠ Stockout Alerts
4
↑ +2 vs last week
Weekly Depletion Trend
13-week rolling · All SKUs
+8.4% WoW
Wheated Rye
Birchwood Vodka
Lakeside Gin
Reserve Bourbon
Sell-Through by SKU
4-week period
Top Performing Stores
Ranked by 4-week depletion · All SKUs
RankStoreRegionUnits 4WDOHSell-ThroughVelocityTrendAction
#1 Summerhill LCBOGTA186 3.5d ⚠82% ★ 1.82
Reorder Now
#2 Square OneGTA164 5.2d ⚠79% ★ 1.63
Reorder Now
#3 King & PortlandGTA142 9.1d74%1.31
Monitor
#4 Ottawa CentreEastern128 14.0d71%1.14
Healthy
#5 Bayview VillageGTA108 16.3d68%0.98
Healthy
Store-Level Performance
10 LCBO stores tracked · Ontario Network
All SKUs
Wheated Rye
Birchwood Vodka
Lakeside Gin
⬇ Export CSV
DOH Distribution
Days on Hand across all stores
Regional Performance
Units sold by region (4W)
All Stores — Ranked by Depletion
RankStoreCityTypeUnits 4WDOHSell-ThruVelocityRepClusterStatus
#1Summerhill LCBOTorontoFlagship1863.5d82%★1.82Maya ChenAReorder Now
#2Square OneMississaugaFlagship1645.2d79%★1.63Maya ChenAReorder Now
#3King & PortlandTorontoRegular1429.1d74%1.31Maya ChenAMonitor
#4Ottawa CentreOttawaFlagship12814.0d71%1.14Carlos RiveraBHealthy
#5Bayview VillageTorontoRegular10816.3d68%0.98Maya ChenBHealthy
#6Barrie GatewayBarrieRegular8818.9d65%0.87Sam ParkCHealthy
#7London Hyde ParkLondonRegular7222.5d58%0.74Sam ParkCStable
#8Waterloo Erb StWaterlooRegular6431.2d52%0.66Sam ParkCOverstocked
#9Kingston PlaceKingstonRegular4834.0d41%0.42Carlos RiveraDSlow Mover
#10Sudbury Elm StSudburyRegular3238.5d35%0.31Alex TranDSlow Mover
Cluster legend: A Urban High-Velocity B Suburban Steady C Regional Slow-Build D Northern Low-Turn
SKU Performance
6 active SKUs · Northfield Spirits portfolio
All Categories
Canadian Whisky
Vodka
Gin
Portfolio Units 4W
14,382
↑ +8.4%
🌟 Hero SKU
Wheated Rye
82% Sell-Through
⚠ Slow Movers
2
Action needed
Avg Velocity Index
0.89
↓ −0.04 WoW
Depletion Rate vs Sell-Through
SKU scatter · 4-week period
Units by SKU (4W)
Total depletions breakdown
SKU Master Performance
All SKUs · Sortable · AI Velocity Index
SKU NameCategoryPriceUnits 4Wvs PYSell-ThroughDOHVelocity IndexStores StockedAI Flag
Wheated Rye 750mLCdn Whisky$44.954,820+22%82%3.5d★ 1.8210/10Stockout Risk
Birchwood Vodka 750mLVodka$29.955,240+11%74%9.8d1.1210/10
Birchwood Vodka 1.14LVodka$38.952,180+6%69%12.9d0.918/10
Reserve BourbonAm. Whiskey$52.951,440+1%71%65.9d0.787/10
Wheated Rye 1.14LCdn Whisky$61.95560+18%76%42.9d1.246/10
Lakeside Gin 750mLGin$34.95142−24%18%121.6d0.318/10Slow Mover
Competitive Benchmarking
Category: Canadian Whisky · LCBO Ontario · Week 18
Canadian Whisky
Vodka
Gin
⬇ Export
Competitor Promo Detected — Crown Valley Rye ($5 off, W16 onward) AI Signal · 93% Confidence
Northfield share declined 15.2% → 13.7% (−1.5pp). Crown Valley gained +2.2pp. Impact concentrated in Eastern Ontario. Historical pattern: promo typically lasts 4 weeks — recovery expected within 2 weeks of promo end.
Market Share — Canadian Whisky
Week 18, 2026 · LCBO total category
Maple Ridge Reserve
28.4%
Crown Valley Rye
19.3%
PROMO
Rideau Gold
15.2%
⭐ Northfield
13.7%
Parliament Rye
11.4%
All Others
12.0%
Market Share Trend
8-week trajectory · Key brands
Northfield
Crown Valley
Maple Ridge
Competitor Detail Table
Canadian Whisky · Week 18 · AI Promo Detection Active
BrandSKUUnits W18Market ShareWoW ΔPricePromo StatusAI Signal
Competitor AMaple Ridge Reserve1,84228.4%+0.3pp$39.95None
Competitor BCrown Valley Rye1,25619.3%+2.2pp ▲$46.95 $41.95$5 Off — Active93% Confirmed
Competitor CRideau Gold98815.2%−0.1pp$36.95None
⭐ NorthfieldWheated Rye (all)89413.7%−1.5pp ▼$44.95–$61.95None
Competitor DParliament Rye74211.4%+0.1pp$34.95None
Inventory & Depletion Analysis
Warehouse snapshot · May 5, 2026 · AI Forecasts Active
All SKUs
Critical Only
⬇ Export
2 SKUs require immediate replenishment — AI-triggered P1 alerts
Northfield Wheated Rye 750mL · Summerhill (DOH: 3.5d, stockout May 8) · Birchwood Vodka 750mL · Square One (DOH: 5.2d, stockout May 10)
Warehouse DOH by SKU
Total available ÷ portfolio depletion rate
30-Day AI Forecast vs Available
Projected need vs. current stock AI
Available
30-day Needed
Warehouse Inventory Snapshot
AI reorder priority ranked · Smart Replenishment Engine
PrioritySKUWarehouseIn-TransitTotal Avail.Daily DepletionDOHAI 30d NeedAI Recommended Action
P1Wheated Rye 750mL84014498438.5/day25.6d1,155 unitsReorder Now · 168u → Summerhill
P2Birchwood Vodka 750mL56024080052.1/day15.4d1,563 unitsMonitor · 218u → Square One
P3Birchwood Vodka 1.14L290029022.4/day12.9d672 unitsSchedule reorder
P4Wheated Rye 1.14L4206048011.2/day42.9d336 unitsOK — next standard cycle
P5Reserve Bourbon1,20001,20018.2/day65.9d546 unitsOK — no action
P6Lakeside Gin 750mL1,80001,80014.8/day121.6d444 unitsSlow Mover · AI Action Recommended
⚠ Slow Mover — Lakeside Gin 750mL
Sell-Through: 18.4% over 13 weeks · AI Root Cause: Distribution Gap + Seasonal Trough
Warehouse Stock
1,800
units
Weeks of Stock
17.4
weeks
Monthly Carry Cost
$2,840
@ $0.08/unit/day
AI Recommended Actions (ranked by ROI):
#1Run Tasting Event (Ottawa + GTA flagships)+34% avg lift · ROI: 2.1x · Cost: $2,400
#2Redistribute 400 units GTA → EasternFaster turn · No cost · Immediate
#3Reduce next production run −40%Prevents $14,400 carry cost build
Alerts & Notifications
4 active · Last checked May 5, 2026 06:42 AM
All
Critical
High
Resolved
🚨
CRITICAL · Stockout Imminent — Northfield Wheated Rye 750mL
Summerhill LCBO (LCBO-0042) · DOH = 3.5 days · Projected stockout: May 8, 2026
AI Recommended reorder qty: 168 units (21-day buffer + May long weekend +30% uplift)
🚨
CRITICAL · Stockout Imminent — Birchwood Vodka 750mL
Square One (LCBO-0334) · DOH = 5.2 days · Projected stockout: May 10, 2026
AI Recommended: 218 units (21-day buffer at 10.4 units/day)
📉
HIGH · Competitor Promo Detected — Crown Valley Rye AI · 93%
$5 price promo active since W16 · Northfield market share −1.5pp (15.2% → 13.7%) · Crown Valley +2.2pp · Impact: Eastern Ontario stores · Historical pattern: promo lasts 4 weeks → Northfield recovers 80% of lost share within 2 weeks of end
🐌
MEDIUM · Slow Mover — Lakeside Gin 750mL AI Root Cause
Sell-Through = 18.4% over 13 weeks (threshold: 30%) · Warehouse: 1,800 units · Carrying cost: $2,840/month
AI Root Cause: Distribution gap at LCBO-0721 (London) + LCBO-0834 (Waterloo) · Zero velocity for 3 consecutive weeks
Alert History — Resolved (Past 30 days)
DateSeverityTypeSKU / StoreResolved ByAction TakenStatus
Apr 28CriticalStockout ImminentVodka 750mL · King & PortlandJordan M.Reorder placed · 120 units✓ Resolved
Apr 21HighLow InventoryWheated Rye · Ottawa CentreCarlos R.Scheduled next cycle✓ Resolved
Apr 14MediumForecast DeviationBirchwood Vodka · GTAAlex T.Safety stock updated to 21d✓ Resolved
Apr 7InfoStar StoreWheated Rye · SummerhillMaya C.Added facing · +12u/week uplift✓ Resolved
AI Capabilities
8 real AI capabilities — from PRD v2, Section 16
All Phases
Phase 1
Phase 2
🤖
AI transforms this platform from reporting to prediction — click any use case to explore the demo, data flow, and business impact.
All 8 use cases are implementable with existing LCBO SOD data. Phase 1 uses classical ML; Phase 2 adds LLMs and advanced optimization. The AI Assistant is live — click the 🤖 button (bottom right) to try it.
📈
Demand Forecasting
Facebook Prophet / LSTM per SKU × Store. 7-day and 30-day forecasts with confidence bands, holiday uplift, and event detection.
Phase 1
Forecast Accuracy
72% → 88%
🔍
Anomaly Detection
Isolation Forest flags velocity spikes, zero-drops, and data quality errors across all 6,800 SKU × Store data points weekly.
Phase 1
Detection Lag
7 days → 0 days
📦
Smart Replenishment
OR-Tools constraint optimizer calculates ideal reorder qty using forecast + lead time + warehouse constraints + service level (97.5%).
Phase 1
Stockout Probability
12% → 3%
🎯
Competitor Promo Detection
Statistical correlation engine detects promo signatures from SOD category shifts. Pearson r < −0.65 triggers alert with confidence score.
Phase 1
Alert Lead Time
3-4 weeks → 48 hrs
💬
Natural Language Assistant
Claude API embedded assistant answers plain-English questions about stores, SKUs, inventory, and competitors. Role-aware, data-grounded.
Phase 2
Ad-hoc Requests
−65% to analytics team
🗂
Store Segmentation
K-Means clustering groups all 680 LCBO stores into 4 behavioural segments based on velocity, seasonality, and sell-through. Monthly retraining.
Phase 2
Visit Efficiency
+35% productive calls
🚀
Cold-Start Forecast
KNN similarity matching bootstraps depletion forecasts for new SKUs with fewer than 4 weeks of data using historical launch cohort blending.
Phase 2
First-60d Stockouts
−35% vs. static
🐌
Slow Mover Action Engine
Decision-tree classifier identifies root cause (distribution gap, pricing, seasonal, structural) and prescribes ranked actions with ROI estimates.
Phase 1
Resolution Time
6 weeks → 2 weeks
Live AI Forecast Preview — Wheated Rye 750mL · Summerhill LCBO
Actual vs. AI-predicted depletions · Prophet Model · MAPE 11.2%
Long weekend +30% detected
AI Recommendation: Reorder 168 units at Summerhill now. At forecast rate (54→63u/week), stockout on May 8. May 19 long weekend: +30% velocity multiplier applied. Warehouse has 984u available. One-click approve ↓
AI Store Clustering — Northfield Portfolio
K-Means · 4 behavioural segments · Monthly retraining
Cluster A — Urban High-Velocity
Summerhill, Square One, King & Portland (3 stores)
9.2/d
Weekly replenishment · Premium SKU focus · 60% of portfolio volume
Cluster B — Suburban Steady
Bayview Village, Ottawa Centre (2 stores)
5.4/d
Bi-weekly · Promotional responsive · Flagship events
Cluster C — Regional Slow-Build
Barrie, London, Waterloo (3 stores)
3.1/d
Seasonal promos · Value-tier SKU priority · Event-driven
Cluster D — Northern Low-Turn
Kingston, Sudbury (2 stores)
1.3/d
Quarterly replenishment · Reduce premium SKU allocation
Glossary of Terms
40+ terms · From PRD v2, Appendix A — Industry, Technical, Supply Chain & Geographic
🔍
All Terms
Industry & Business
Technical & Platform
Supply Chain
Geographic & Stores
🤖
MetricsNumero Assistant
Powered by Claude · Data-grounded
Hi Maya 👋 I'm your AI analytics Assistant. I have full context on your portfolio — stores, SKUs, inventory, and competitive data as of Week 18, May 2026. What would you like to know?
Top stores this week Stockout risk Gin analysis Competitor impact Exec briefing